The Blazers playoff chances are basically sitting somewhere between "minimal" and "none'' after their loss to the Kings. While a fourth straight postseason berth isn't out of the question, the Blazers have a great chance over their last five games to play spoiler, as all of their remaining five games will be against teams fighting for their playoff lives, or seeding.
The Suns fall into the first category, as they currently sit one game back of Houston for the Western Conference's eighth and final playoff spot. Phoenix has been playing great basketball since the All-Star break, posting a 17-9 record to put themselves squarely in the thick of the race for the playoffs. While they have the good fortune of finishing with five of their final six games at home, a victory against the Blazers (playing in the second of a back-to-back) is a necessity. After Portland, the Suns finish against the Thunder (Wednesday), Clippers (Thursday), Denver (Saturday), at Utah (Tuesday) and against the Spurs (Wednesday).
Portland will be without starting point guard Raymond Felton for this game, and could see a reduced role the rest of the season. While the Blazers could start Jamal Crawford, they'll likely choose from rookie Nolan Smith or Jonny Flynn, as the team is likely going to use Felton's reduced role to evaluate both Smith and Flynn's long-term viability to the team.
For the Blazers to win, they'll need to contain Suns point guard Steve Nash. Despite being 38 years old, Nash has still been a very effective point guard in the league, averaging 12.7 points and 10.9 assists per game this season. After Nash, the team's most important player is center Marcin Gortat (15.8 points, 9.8 rebounds). The team also has six players averaging in double figures, including wings Jared Dudley (12.4), Shannon Brown (10.5) and Grant Hill (10.4), as well as perimeter-oriented big man Channing Frye (10.4). While head coach Alvin Gentry doesn't place a major emphasis on defense, Dudley, Hill and Robin Lopez all are adequate to above average defenders.
Portland will need to dictate the pace of the game. Being on the second of a back-to-back, Portland will need to make Phoenix a half-court team and avoid a run-and-gun game. The team will also have to find a way to get Hickson more involved, as he managed just eight field goal attempts against the Kings. Since replacing LaMarcus Aldridge, Hickson has been seeing a significant amount of defensive attention, as he's Portland's only true low-post scoring option.
Along with Hickson, the Blazers will need to get a 48-minute effort from Nicolas Batum. At times, Batum has been the best player on the floor for the Blazers this season, while on other occasions he almost completely disappears. Batum is the best wing on either team, and needs to take advantage of any potential mismatches.
The teams have split their season series thus far, with the Suns notching a 25-point win at American Airlines Arena on January 6th. The Blazers got the better of Phoenix three weeks later at the Rose Garden, hanging 109 on the Suns in a 38-point win. If the Blazers are able to keep the Suns out of transition and can stay close with Phoenix on points in the paint, Portland could very well record their 9th road win of the season.
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